The new Environmental Impact Report (EIR) has been in the hands of city planners for about a month and a half. And it's a good thing, too. The printed version comprises 14 total volumes in binders, 7 apiece for each proposed shopping center. No joke: the volumes take up an entire handcart at the planning commission offices.
Correction: I'm told with the appendices, the EIRS are 14 volumes apiece.
If you want to check out the EIRs for yourself, click on this link. A warning the PDF files are pretty big:
http://www.bakersfieldcity.us/weblink7/ElectronicFile.aspx?docid=623688
Deputy City Attorney Robert "Bob" Sherfy will join us on 17 News At Sunrise Thursday. He says the main point of contention by the citizen's group that sued the city is urban decay.
What's urban decay:
Urban decay is defined as, among other characteristics, visible symptoms of physical deterioration that invite vandalism, loitering, and graffiti that is caused by a downward spiral of business closures and long term vacancies. The outward manifestations of urban decay include, but are not limited to, plywood-boarded doors and windows, parked trucks and long term unauthorized use of the properties and parking lots, extensive gang and other graffiti and offensive words painted on buildings, dumping of refuse on site, overturned dumpsters, broken parking barriers, broken glass littering the site, dead trees and shrubbery together with weeds, lack of building maintenance, homeless encampments, and unsightly and dilapidated fencing.
In other words...urban decay is the theory that the Walmarts would cause smaller retailers to close. Those buildings would then become blighted.
HERE'S A LINK TO URBAN DECAY IN THE CURRENT EIR: http://www.bakersfieldcity.us/weblink7/ElectronicFile.aspx?docid=623688
AND HERE'S WHAT THE EIR HAS TO SAY ABOUT WHAT THESE PROPOSED WALMART STORES:
Panama Lane
. At the time full store operations are achieved in 2009, the Panama Lane project is estimated to induce up to $22.9 million in diverted sales among existing market area retailers. These impacts are spread across four identifiable retail categories, including apparel, food stores, eating and drinking, and other retail.1 Among these categories, only the food store sales impact of $19.6 million attributable to the food sales component of the Wal-Mart Supercenter comprises a potential risk to the existing sales base. Sales impacts among the other three categories are sufficiently small enough to be absorbed by existing retailers with no significant impact.
There are nine major food stores serving the Panama Lane market area. The study concludes that one existing food store, the Vons on White Lane, is most at risk of closure due to the anticipated food store sales impacts of the Panama Lane Wal-Mart Supercenter.
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Gosford Village
. At the time Gosford Village achieves full operations in 2013, the project is estimated to induce up to $37.5 million in diverted sales among existing market area retailers. The projected sales impacts are spread across four identifiable retail categories, including food stores, eating and drinking, home furnishings and appliances, and other retail. There are other potential sales impacts that cannot be attributed to any particular category because the identities of a few minor Gosford Village retailers generating the sales are not yet known. Among the impacted retail sales categories, the food store sales, home furnishings and appliances sales, and other retail sales comprise a potential risk to the existing retail base. The levels of impacts are $22.9 million, $4.4 million, and $5.4 million, respectively.
Among the impacted retail sales categories, the food store sales, home furnishings and appliances sales, and other retail sales comprise a potential risk to the existing retail base. The levels of impacts are $22.9 million, $4.4 million, and $5.4 million, respectively. Future demand is estimated to absorb these sales impacts within 2.0 years for food stores, 2.1 years for home furnishings and appliances, and 1.1 years for other retail. These estimates are predicated upon the Gosford Village retailers achieving their stabilized sales during the first full year of operations. If stores require a longer period of time to achieve stabilized sales, then the initial sales impacts will be lower, and thus more easily recouped by existing retailers. The eating and drinking sales impacts are sufficiently small enough to be absorbed by existing retailers with no significant impact while unidentified sales impacts cannot be attributed to any specific retail category.
There are seven major food stores serving the Gosford Village market area, with one additional food store located just outside the market area that may experience some competitive influences. The study concludes that three stores are anticipated to be most at risk of sales impacts from the Gosford Village Wal-Mart Supercenter, the Albertsons at 7900 White Lane, the Food Maxx at 6300 White Lane, and the Vons at Stockdale Town Center. Factors influencing the vulnerability of these stores include their proximity to Gosford Village, the location of two Food Maxx stores approximately 2.5 miles from each other, and the older state of the Stockdale Town center. The projection that the food store sales impacts will be mitigated
by new growth 2.0 years following the stabilization of Gosford Village will help ease the impacts on the market area stores. However, it is possible that one store will not be able to withstand a sales decline for up to 2.0 years. Therefore, the study concludes that one existing food store in the Gosford Village market area may experience steep enough declines in sales volumes to trigger store closure. If this occurs, an anchor space would become available in the project’s retail submarket.
Given their large size, anchor spaces can be more challenging to retenant than smaller, more flexible retail spaces. However, the Bakersfield retail market has a strong track record in retenanting anchor spaces, including spaces vacated by major food stores. This history is a clear indication that demand will exist to retenant grocery stores that may become vacant following the full operations of Gosford Village. Yet additional factors suggest that urban decay will not result if sales diversions cause the closure of even up to two grocery stores. These include the market area’s current absence of urban decay, the market area’s new and affluent population base, and a large volume of planned retail projects, demonstrating a high level of demand for retail space in this rapidly growing, high-income area. Thus, no urban decay is expected to occur as a result of competition from the Gosford Village Wal-Mart Supercenter.
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I'll talk to Mr. Sherfy about urban decay during our interview tomorrow. But if you have some question about this issue you want asked, drop me a line. And while we're on the subject: What do you think about the proposed Walmarts? A lot of people have very strong opinions, especially when it comes to the urban decay issue.
-Kiyoshi
